The Indian economy recovered from the Covid-induced downturn during 2022 and is poised for further improvement in the coming quarters though downside risks emanating from geopolitical tensions, strengthening dollar and elevated inflation will continue. The positive trajectory in the growth trend and improved fundamentals will help the nation in neutralising the impact of global headwinds which are expected to have a bearing on the country's exports in the months to come. The challenges before the government and the Reserve Bank in the new year would be to arrest inflation, check declining value of rupee against US dollar and promote private investment and growth, with a view to ensure that the country remains one the fastest growing major economies of the world.
Given the prevailing uncertainties, investors must maintain a 10-15 per cent allocation to gold in 2023.
Takao replaced Haruhiko Kuroda, who had, in March, quit ADB to take charge as Japan's central bank governor.
The rupee weakened by 14 paise to close at a new lifetime low of 79.59 against the US dollar on Tuesday as a strong greenback overseas and persistent foreign fund outflows continued to weigh on investor sentiment. This comes a day after the RBI announced measures for international trade settlement in rupees. At the interbank forex market, the local unit opened weak at 79.55 against the greenback and witnessed an intra-day high of 79.53 and a low of 79.66.
The currency market won't care for our moans, groans, cries and sighs. The rupee will find its own level, explains Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
'You may see some movement indicating a simpler tax regime with less exemptions but with fewer tax rates making life simpler for taxpayers.'
The government has decided to postpone the release of the new Foreign Trade Policy (FTP) and extend the existing one by six months on account of global uncertainties and currency fluctuations. The government was scheduled to announce the new FTP by the end of September. The current policy was to end on September 30.
Up and coming artist Remen Chopra speaks about becoming an artist in the post-recession world
Deepening the funding crisis that startups have been witnessing for some time, the October inflows plunged 75 per cent on-year to $3.3 billion across 75 deals, including six large deals worth $2.2 billion, according to an industry report. Exits touched half of the inflows at $1.6 billion across 15 deals in the reporting months, a significant improvement over the previous month which saw just $653 million worth of exits across 24 deals, but 69 per cent lower on-year basis, according to the numbers collated by EY for the Indian Private Equity & Venture Capital Association, the umbrella body the PEs and VCs. However, the report said, on a month-on-month basis, the inflows continued to grow, clipping at 60 per cent over the September numbers.
Equity benchmarks fell sharply on Thursday in line with an extremely weak trend in the global markets, with the Sensex plunging 1,154.78 points in early trade. Persistent foreign fund outflows and a spurt in crude oil prices also dampened sentiment. The 30-share BSE benchmark was trading 1,154.78 points lower at 53,053.75. The broader NSE Nifty tumbled 335.65 points to 15,904.65.
A forthcoming study based on NCAER data shows a huge income gap that is directly attributable to education levels, says Sunil Jain.
IPO market hopes to come out of slump in festive season, reports Sundar Sethuraman.
Most recession-hit clients, domestic and foreign, are asking for price cuts that large Indian IT firms are unable to offer due to high overheads. However, SMEs can afford to do so, since their employee costs are low. This is the right time to enter the domestic market, which is projected to expand five-fold by 2020 to $90-100 billion, including both technology and business outsourcing, said K Purushothaman, Nasscom's regional director for Tamil Nadu and Kerala.
Neither recessions nor world wars have deterred women from indulging in beauty products, writes Valentina Zannoni.
Silver, which is currently trading at Rs 68,453 per kilogram, has appreciated 21.7 per cent over the past three months. Investors, however, shouldn't get carried away by its recent performance and put their money in it. Instead, they should evaluate its pros and cons and then take a considered decision based on their risk appetite.
The second wave of COVID-19 may have a more lasting damage on the Indian economy and exports will once again be the foundation for recovery, Moody's Analytics said on Monday. In its report titled 'APAC Economic Outlook: The Delta Roadblock', Moody's Analytics said social distancing is weighing on the current quarter, but economic recovery will resume by the year-end. The Delta variant of COVID-19 is among factors now adversely affecting economies of the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, but the economic hit from the current round of movement restrictions in the region will not be as severe as the recessions in the second quarter of last year.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday cut its projection of India's economic growth in 2022 to 6.8 per cent, as it joins other global agencies that have trimmed forecasts. The IMF had in July projected a gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 7.4 per cent for India in the fiscal year that started in April 2022. Even that forecast was lower than 8.2 per cent projected in January this year. India had grown at 8.7 per cent in 2021-22 fiscal (April 2021 to March 2022).
The worst of recession could coincide with the run-up to the elections.
Expenditure on new projects slowed down for the second quarter in a row amid an uncertain global environment and higher borrowing costs. There were new projects worth a cumulative Rs 3.26 trillion in the July-September period, according to data provided by project tracker Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). This figure is much less than Rs 4.39 trillion in the June quarter (Q1FY23) and Rs 8.46 trillion in the March quarter (Q4FY22).
The global meltdown has significantly brought down the number of visitors from abroad to God's own country, prompting the government to now focus more on the domestic market.
The recession in the advanced countries could continue for a while yet.
As the credit crunch bites deeper into the global economy, tennis has so far managed to escape the effects of the crisis and it will be business as usual when the Australian Open begins on Monday. While Formula One, golf and soccer have all been hit by the financial downturn, tennis officials are adamant that only a world war, and not the current economic climate, would force the cancellation of one of its blue-riband events.
'Sector funds like IT funds should be included only in the satellite portfolio.' 'Limit your exposure to IT sector funds to around 5-10 per cent of your equity portfolio.'
Benchmark indices failed to hold on to early gains and closed in the red for the seventh straight session on Thursday, with participants remaining in wait-and-watch mode ahead of the RBI's interest rate decision. Unabated selling by foreign funds added to the pressure, though a modest recovery in the rupee cushioned the fall, traders said. After rallying in early trade, the 30-share BSE Sensex came under selling pressure in the afternoon session and closed 188.32 points or 0.33 per cent lower at 56,409.96.
So, while it is great that India's numbers look relatively good, don't raise a cheer just yet, points out T N Ninan.
A yellow glow is likely to stand out amid grey geopolitical clouds in 2023, with gold price projected to touch Rs 60,000 per 10 grams in the Indian market as more investors veer towards safe-haven assets. In a year where volatility was more a norm than an exception, gold prices in the international market oscillated from a peak of $2,070 per ounce in March to a low of $1,616 per ounce in November and is steadily recovering since then, according to market experts. At the beginning of 2022, gold prices were around $1,800 an ounce.
Billionaire Gautam Adani on Tuesday said China will feel increasingly isolated as rising nationalism, shift in supply chains and technology restrictions threaten the world's second-biggest economy. This is because globalisation, of which China was seen as the foremost champion, is at an inflection point. "It will look very different from what we had come to accept in a largely unipolar world," he said.
Eben Esterhuizen, a financial news analyst and writer for The Panelist, asks the question of the month: is this the end of the commodity bull run? History suggests that commodity prices will move lower if the US enters a recession, and historical evidence also rejects the notion that emerging market growth will continue to support commodity prices during a US recession.
'You have to be a total anti-national bozo to shut down the Nokia plant in Sriperumbudur, which was the first large manufacturing plant for mobile phones in India.' 'Why was the unit shut down? Because of somebody's ego.'
The rupee rose by 12 paise to close at 79.78 against the US dollar on Monday due to a weak dollar in overseas markets and an improved appetite for riskier assets. Stronger regional currencies also supported the rupee sentiment ahead of the US Fed policy decision on Wednesday. Weak domestic equities and FII outflows, however, capped sharp gains. At the inter-bank forex market, the local unit opened at 79.86 against the greenback and moved in a range of 79.70 to 79.87 in the day trade.
The likelihood is that India will maintain a moderately upbeat economic tempo -- well short of tearaway growth, explains T N Ninan.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) turned net buyers in October after being net sellers in the previous month. In October, FPIs bought shares worth nearly Rs 8,430 crore ($1 billion) against net selling of Rs 13,405 crore ($1.6 billion) in September. Positive flows during three of the previous four months have pushed the domestic markets towards fresh all-time highs. At present, the Sensex and Nifty are less than 2 per cent shy of breaching record highs logged in October 2021. A rally in equity markets in the US and Europe is in hopes that the Federal Reserve may go soft on rate hikes after its November meeting.
Benchmark indices ended on a flat note on Thursday as fag-end selling wiped out intra-day gains amid weak global trends. The BSE benchmark Sensex slipped 8.03 points or 0.02 per cent to settle at 53,018.94. During the day, it had gained 350.57 points or 0.66 per cent to 53,377.54. Similarly, the broader NSE Nifty fell 18.85 points or 0.12 per cent to close at 15,780.25.
'We suggest investors with suitable risk appetite to consider allocating 40-50 per cent in large-caps, 25-30 per cent of funds in quality mid and small-caps and the rest in debt and high yield products.'
Investments by private equity and venture capital funds into Indian entities fell by 69 per cent to $3 billion during July, a report said on Wednesday. The investments in July are the lowest for any month in a year, and lower than the $4.9 billion recorded across 118 deals in the preceding month of June, the report by industry lobby IVCA and consultancy firm EY said. Going by the number of deals, July 2022 recorded 74 deals, as against 134 deals in the year-ago period, the report said.
'Only if the Budget springs some surprises we may see a halt in the selling.'
In the Rajya Sabha, Chairman M Venkaiah Naidu could not read out his customary closing remarks that sum up the business conducted in the House during the session, as Shiv Sena and other opposition MPs created a ruckus.
Equity benchmarks nosedived on Friday, with the Sensex crashing 866.65 points to close below the 55,000-mark amid a sell-off in global markets. Unabated foreign fund outflows and firm crude oil prices also weighed on sentiment. The 30-share BSE Sensex dived 866.65 points or 1.56 per cent to finish at 54,835.58.
TCS is confident of achieving a double-digit revenue growth in the current fiscal and will be targeting a similar performance in FY24 as well, a senior executive said on Tuesday. The largest IT services exporter's ability to achieve the number in FY24 will hinge on how the macroeconomic situation, including geopolitical tensions, commodity price pressures, inflation and financial tightening worries, play out, chief operating officer N Ganapathy Subramaniam told PTI. "(For) this year (FY23), probably we are there (double-digit growth).
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